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Typically, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year honor follows a simple pattern. It frequently functions as a kind of mea culpa. We regret we misjudged your team in our preseason projections.

In theory, it's a clear-cut path: the skipper who orchestrated the most dramatic resurgence is handed the prize. However, it sparks an annual debate about expectations and whether we're genuinely rewarding superior coaching or merely the most shocking upset.

But this year's race is distinctly different. The group of contenders is remarkably talented. It has been the campaign of resurgences. The NFL has been unpredictable, with reigning division champions falling away and recent strugglers ascending in unison. During an ordinary year, a coach guiding the his team to the top of the conference would make him the overwhelming front-runner. Yet in such a chaotic and thrilling year, he's up against multiple other outstanding candidates.

Below is how the ideal vote should shake out.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year voters love signal-callers. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you solve a quarterback, you're halfway to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just fixed his young quarterback; he's freed him. Within an ideal ecosystem, the QB has been given the opportunity to showcase his special ability. Since midseason onward, the Bears rank number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a hot streak – it's consistent excellence. With Johnson, the quarterback has become more confident, far less reckless, and has willingly surrendered to the scheme rather than freelancing. It is an offense designed solely in the coach's image: a bully-ball run game, a consistent helping of play-action and a creative passing attack that frees wide-open targets everywhere. Williams has capitalized. And when clear throws haven't been available, he's been capable to conjure magic out of nothing.

The coach came to the Bears with a defined offensive philosophy. Almost each decision – overhauling the offensive line, highlighting the pass-catchers, turning the QB into a timing-based thrower – has paid off. This is uncommon for a rookie head coach. And it's rarer yet for a leader who walked into the building with the level of pressure Johnson did. For two straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after name on the coaching carousel. However when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are zero guarantees. Somehow, Johnson has met expectations – and even exceeded them. He's proven not only to be a scheme wizard but the type of leader that can inject new life into an organization.

During a normal year, he would be the clear-cut favorite. But the current isn't a normal campaign!

The area where Johnson's case runs a bit unstuck is on defense. The Bears currently rank 25th in defensive efficiency. They are relying on turnovers, and turnovers are notoriously inconsistent. Defensive minds can stress ball disruption, but nobody can ensure it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offense is legitimate. He's ranked lower because variance is doing an outsized share of the defense's work. With a couple bounces of the ball, the team would be several victories behind. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the foundation is in place for sustained winning. But Johnson falls just short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, Their Record

Coen is in a similar spot to Johnson. He's another first-time leader who has orchestrated a rapid turnaround. During the stretch run of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete all-around ball of his career. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defensive unit that now sits at number five in the NFL in EPA per play.

What's more notably, he has mastered the leadership stuff, which was not a given following his early public appearances and some of his preseason decisions.

The coach walked into Jacksonville with an exceptionally inexperienced staff. Unlike other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the ideal staff cocktail of new ideas and experience, Coen bet on first-timers. Starting with the leader himself to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are filled with rookies. That type of setup is exciting in theory, but frequently fails in reality – as past failures are a warning – because everybody is figuring out a their job on the fly. But Coen has managed to bring everyone and all elements together.

After an initial hot start, there was a risk that the campaign would go off the track. A mid-year setback had the Jags wobbling once more. That's typically when coaches overcorrect. Coen did not. Instead, he simplified things. The offense stopped pursuing home-run answers and started hunting sustainable ones. The coach recentered the offense around his playmakers and the running game, and asked Lawrence to use his mobility more.

The results are evident. The Jags have won multiple games in a row and will be the AFC's number three seed. Coen gets the tiniest deduction in the standings because he inherited a skilled roster, but he has proven he can get the most out of that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Each Strong of the Year argument has a hinge decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback decision.

Parting ways from a veteran, bringing in a new signal-caller and pairing him with an new offensive coordinator might have derailed the season in the early weeks. Rather, it shaped it. By the middle point of the year, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has regressed since that time, dropping to a lower rank in efficiency per dropback over the second half of the schedule, placing him only one place ahead of peers.

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