A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that split the country and unleashed disorder, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is approaching, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unification has masked the absence of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in academia but scarcely any government figures or advocates are willing to participate with the essentials. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author endorses unity or the status quo. Each authors two articles that aim for impartiality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument against, gathering economic and societal statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Arguments range over national emblems, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the concept that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens report they support unity but oppose increased taxation or implementing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his era is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid arguments, he said. "One side will win in this matter and somebody will ultimately lose but each side has possesses something to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the debate, urged the analyst. "This is about Britain. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
